Uber and Lyft's Low Prices Won't Last Forever

Besides its convenience factor, a user's ability to rate their drivers, and the inherent safety that comes with the app tracking your motion along a pre-determined route, Uber has attracted so many customers in large part due to its subsidized pricing. Over the years, Uber has aggressively pushed to become the leader in the ride-sharing market. To do so, they have often offered prices that are discounted to such an extent that the company sinks billions of dollars into the app each year. While it may seem counter-intuitive to lose money, Uber is actually proceeding exactly as planned: they are focusing first on acquiring customers and forcing out any competitors before they try to turn a profit. Tracy Lien, in her L.A. Times article, addresses Uber's plan and describes how such a monopoly might affect the market.

Uber and Lyft, the most popular ride-sharing services, both know that the fastest way to get loyal customers id to give them a cheaper alternative to taxis. While many consumers still prefer taking a taxi over using one of the ride-sharing apps, most people care more about saving some money. Fortunately for consumers, the ride-sharing apps are not only competing against taxis, they are also competing against each other, which has allowed prices to fall even lower. Eventually, though, as economists have reiterated time and again, when one of the companies gains control of the market, their prices will go up. Maybe it will be slow at first, but it is a law of economics that if one company is the only source of a good or service, consumers are either forced to pay whatever price the company sets or live without it.

Uber is currently valued at over $62 billion, and is by far the market leader, even though they continuously lose money or barely break even in their attempt to grow their market share. While Lyft is in second place, they also have plenty of money to burn, especially after a recent $500 million investment by General Motors. In fact, while Lyft is falling behind Uber in most areas, they have nearly half of the market share in their hometown of San Francisco. It's possible that Uber won't be able to force Lyft out of the competition in the long-run, or they may find that the attempt would be too costly to be economical. However, economists still worry about what might happen if Lyft and other competitors were forced to back out.

Uber just lost a battle in China to become the main provider of ride-sharing services. That loss could lead Uber to focus on the US and Europe more closely and work harder on taking as much market share as possible. Therefore, it is believed that their prices will go even lower in the near future. If they can keep their prices low enough for a long enough time, they may be able to gain enough customers to be unstoppable. Some economists believe that Uber should look toward becoming more valuable to the consumer rather than a cheaper option. The Premier options in ride-sharing apps attract upper-class customers, which could be a substantial source of boosted income for Uber, even if they don't succeed in encapsulating the entire market.

While it is likely that all of the ride-sharers will eventually start raising prices in the future, there are several reasons why they wouldn't suddenly shoot up to exorbitant rates. First, there are anti-trust laws and similar regulations on how much a company can charge for a product or service, especially if that company is one of only a few providers. Additionally, if Uber or Lyft suddenly started charging extremely high prices, their customers would just switch to taking taxis. So, whatever happens with their market share, economic theory would tell us that the ride-sharing apps would steer away from charging more than taxis unless they somehow found a way to remove that competitor entirely, which is unlikely.

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ZestFinance to Use Search Data in Calculating Credit Scores

Traditionally, a credit profile is derived by looking at a potential borrower's history of paying back loans. Whether from car loans, credit card usage, or a mortgage on a home, the more an individual can show that they have paid back borrowed money in the past, the lower their interest rate will be on a new loan. However, there is the issue of the Catch-22 of credit: without any credit history, it is very difficult to get your first loan on the path to a good credit profile. Some companies have started including monthly rent payments in their calculations. In partnership with Chinese search engine Baidu, Hollywood credit firm ZestFinance will be using a potential borrower's internet search and shopping history to calculate their credit score, as described in James Rufus Koren's L.A. Times article.

Nontraditional means have been used in the past to calculate a potential borrower's credit, especially when that borrower has never borrowed money, but this will be the first time using search data. ZestFinance has focused on borrowers with little credit history from the very beginning and is confident that the sheer size of Baidu's engine will make them succeed where no one has ever dared venture before. The company will be breaking out in both the US and China, underwriting loans through the companies Basix and JD.com, respectively.

In addition to using the search data in calculating credit profiles, behavioral data gained from analyzing search history can help the company to avoid fraudulent customers. With enough data, ZestFinance believes they will be able to statistically determine the likelihood of a borrower paying back their loan in a certain time frame. One example they give is that for some reason, potential borrowers who fill out their loan application with proper capitalization are more likely to pay back their loan than a borrower who writes in all capital letters. They aren't sure exactly why this correlation exists, but they believe that enough research will enable them to create fair assessments of a borrower's credit profile.

Some believe that this system will be unfair, because how can anyone really tell if someone will pay back a loan based on what they look up online? However, if this is the system that enables the majority of those people who were previously refused loans to start down the road to good credit, then it may be worth it. In fact, ZestFinance believes their system will be fairer than current non-traditional calculations in that it can allow people with no credit history to have a decent interest rate, whereas before, they had to choose between paying exorbitant rates or missing out completely on the chance to develop their credit profile. As Douglas Merrill, a ZestFinance executive, says, three out of four Chinese citizens lack the financial history to have a fair credit profile. In exchange for a small, carefully limited, loss of privacy, credit could be gained more easily by everyone, and for most, that's a pretty simple trade.

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Apple Stocks Fall, Partly Due to Struggling Chinese Economy

While Apple is a large company with a variety of different products, many investors measure the company's success solely on the sales of a single product: the iPhone. Because of its popularity around the world, analysts tend to use the statistics of iPhone sales to monitor how the company as a whole is doing. Unfortunately, when iPhone sales are down, investors see this as a red flag and look to jump ship, thereby causing Apple stocks as a whole to go down. Paresh Dave and David Pierson write in their article about some of the possible factors contributing to lowered iPhone sales, as well as how this affects the company.

While just over a month ago, Apple stocks closed at $119, the same stocks have recently taken a plunge, going under $100 for the first time since October 2015. That's a decrease of over 15% in a single month, not a good sign for executives and potential investors. The iPhone 6S, this year's iteration of the popular cell phone, hasn't sold as well as predicted, in China as well as throughout the rest of the world. Several rumors have surfaced that assemblers and manufacturers of iPhones have recently been bracing for a slowdown in production, and financial analysts have determined that Apple has reduced supplies to Asian distributors.

While all of this may be coincidental, investors have taken these signs to be harbingers of future turmoil for the company and have decided to pull out for the time being. China's economy, which has doubled in the 7 years since Apple first opened stores and factories in the country, has a large impact on the company's success and failure, whether we like it or not. China's middle class is slowly expanding, opening up the market for iPhones to a much larger group of people, which will be good for sales when the economy gets back on track.

It seems that the first sign of a downturn for iPhone sales appeared in mid-December, when companies like Jabil Circuit and Dialog Semiconductor, which produce casings and internal parts for the iPhone reported lower-than-expected revenue predictions for the coming months. Decreased sales could be due to the fact that the newly released iPhone 6S is not very different from last year's iPhone 6, which would explain reduced demand, or it could be due to more economic factors. Either way, Apple seems confident that sales and stocks will go back up in the near future, especially with the new iPhone 7 in the works. While growth may be slow in 2016, executives believe that revenue will continue to grow at a rate of about 5%.

Where iPhone sales didn't boom as greatly as expected, products like the Apple Watch, iPad Pro, and Apple TV were popular gifts during the holiday season, thus boosting Apple's total revenue over the past couple of months. Apple executives are certain that China will remain a huge market for iPhone sales, but that it will just take a little bit of time for the economy to catch up again. In the long run, China is still one of the biggest markets for Apple products, even with current economic turmoil messing up sales. Eventually, Apple stocks should go back up, but the question is: How soon?

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Devaluation of the Yuan Affects California's Economy

To shopping centers throughout the Southland, busloads of Chinese tourists are a necessary and regularly expected source of income. Especially in summer months, some places like the Beverly Center get an average of 70 such buses per month, full of tourists ready to spend. Shan Li, Samantha Masunaga, and Andrew Khouri wrote recently in their L.A. Times article about how recent devaluation of the Chinese yuan could have positive and negative effects on various California businesses.

Where 2.2 million Chinese tourists to the U.S. spent nearly $24 billion in 2014, 12.6% more than in 2013, many expect that such spending will likely slow down in the coming months. Up until recently, tourists found that their money would stretch much further on brand-name products in California than in China, but as the yuan loses value, that is beginning to change. Furthermore, even as a decrease in tourism hurts stores and shopping centers, it also affects sales on a larger scale. For certain luxury brands, like Coach, a decrease in sales to tourists leads to a decrease in earning, which causes stock prices to fall.

The current economic trifecta in China (slowing of the economy, devaluation of the currency, and a crackdown on political corruption) has led tourists to become more careful with their spending, according to Li, Masunaga, and Khouri. However, they point out that while the yuan loss in value hurts local retailers, it can actually be quite helpful for importers. For U.S. businesses that import Chinese products, the devaluation of the yuan means that the dollar stretches much further than it did before. Since importers will take advantage of this situation and increase purchasing, experts predict that California's ports will get plenty of use in the coming months. This will help to provide jobs for dockworkers, truck drivers, and warehouse workers.

Unfortunately for exporters, such positive outcomes are not likely. They are expected to suffer far more than local businesses due to the fact that import taxes in China can range as high as 20 to 30%.
Some tourists who come to the U.S. regularly anyway to visit family or send their children to summer camp may continue shopping in the U.S. for such luxury goods, but it wouldn't make economic sense for Chinese companies to continue importing American goods when the value of the yuan is so far outweighed by the value of the dollar. Costs would be much higher, especially on top of the exorbitant import taxes, and so it would be unlikely that American exporters would find business improving while the yuan's devaluation continues.

As Louis Glickman once said, "The best investment on Earth is earth." Analysts expect that as the yuan's value continues to plunge, Chinese investors will slow down the purchase of American products and focus on American real estate. Since the dollar remains relatively steady, many such investors will prefer to "park" their money in a building, rather than hold onto the quickly-devaluing cash. The increasing prevalence of property investment could help to dull the effects of the reduction in retail. However, economists warn that China's economy is connected to our own. If China's economy starts to fail, then that won't be good news for the U.S.

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Foreign Purchases of Some American Businesses Face Government Examination

7/20/15 - The Committee on Foreign Investment, an agency through the United States Treasury Department, is responsible for deciding whether to approve or deny any attempted purchase of an American company by a company based in another country. Some such buy-outs are simple and easily approved. Others, like the purchase of Micron Technology Inc., as discussed by James F. Peltz, in his L.A. Times article, require much more discussion and consideration.

The Committee on Foreign Investment only tends to take issue with purchases when they may affect national security. For example, in 2005, a major Chinese oil company called CNOOC Ltd. made an offer of $18.5 billion to purchase Unocal Corp., a California-based oil company. Politicians took issue with this proposed buy-out because they feared that foreign ownership of the American oil provider could possibly cause major problems for the future of American energy security. Eventually, due to complaints and protests regarding the deal, CNOOC Ltd. decided to retract its offer.

More recently, another Chinese company, Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd., has reportedly been preparing a $23 billion offer for the purchase of Micron Technology Inc., a major manufacturer of dynamic random-access memory chips. While Micron claims that no offer has been received yet, Peltz’s sources believe that the deal may not go through anyway, even without interference from the Committee on Foreign Investment. Micron’s stock prices in December were at $36 per share, and while those prices have dropped throughout the year, analysts still believe that the expected offer of $21 per share will not be enough to convince Micron to sell.

Were such an offer proposed by Tsinghua Unigroup and accepted by Micron, it is unlikely that the sale would be approved without a struggle. The Committee on Foreign Investment would have to come up with some pretty compelling reasons to grant approval for a state-owned Chinese country to gain control of one of the only major American producers of memory chips, found in so many devices from smartphones to personal computers. Memory chips are everywhere, in the public sector and in the government, and the change in ownership could pose a security risk, especially after the large number of recent cyber-attacks that have been traced back to China.

Having spent over $200 billion, last year alone, on importing integrated circuits, China, like other Asian countries, wants to become more independent and work on developing its own network of memory chip production, rather than continuing to purchase from America and other countries. Unfortunately for them, they will probably not achieve this goal through a purchase of Micron. Between the Department of Defense’s responsibility to protect national security and Micron’s high stock prices, it is more than likely that this Micron deal will end the same way as Unocal Corp.’s did.

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Global Economy Feeling the Effects of America's Powerful Dollar

4/13/15 - Over the past nine months, the value of the dollar has increased dramatically, and Americans are loving it. While the average person is now able to get much further in other countries with the same amount of money as in previous years, Tom Petruno's L.A. Times article predicts that the dollar's raised value will have negative repercussions for the global economy and even the American economy in the long run. Devaluation of currency is becoming a trend around the world, and that will be bad for everyone.


The value of a euro has decreased by 25%, now at just $1.09, from $1.37 a year ago. In countries that don't use the euro, the difference is even greater: 30% in Sweden, 40% in Brazil, and 61% in Russia. This causes more Americans to change their vacation plans, leading to a preference for foreign, rather than domestic, travel destinations. While this is helpful in providing revenue for other countries, American tourist destinations like California and New York find it harder to bring in foreign visitors, as costs are rising from their perspective.


Petruno's research shows that the rising value of the dollar may not be due to an improvement in the American economy, but rather a devaluation of comparative currencies. When the currency of a country lowers in value, prices of goods go down, which causes consumers to purchase more of these “on sale” goods. Petruno believes that this phenomenon of devaluing currency is actually being assisted by federal governments in an attempt to increase demand and aid economic growth. Unfortunately, if this continues, each country will have to devalue their currency more and more to compete with each other, and America will be one of the only consumers in a sea of low prices, which will in turn harm the selling power of American companies.


Fortunately for Californian companies, a large amount of foreign investment comes from China. Since the value of China's currency has remained relatively steady compared to that of the dollar, Chinese tourists to the L.A. area have maintained a consistent degree of purchasing power. U.S. imports are up, and although the costs for these imports have lowered, more importing means less investment in domestic production.


U.S. companies lose money by reduced competitiveness against foreign companies, but more immediately, lose money due to the conversion factor between currencies. As the dollar's value goes up, and the value of foreign currency goes down, American companies are forced to accept less money from a sale than would have been earned previously. However, this has a lesser effect on the American economy as a whole, since the U.S. economy does not rely heavily on exports.


Although the value of the dollar is up, businesses are making less money because of the aforementioned competition and reduced foreign sales. Because of this, quarterly earnings are down, and stocks may begin to plunge because of it. Even in the European stock market, which has been on the rise, American investors receive reduced returns on their investments as the falling value of the euro removes some of the value of the stock.


Petruno concludes that the devaluation game is a slippery slope. Best-case scenario is that demand will move to other countries, improving the global economy without hurting American companies enough to start another recession. Worst-case scenario is that the currencies will be forced into a downward spiral, leading to debt defaults by foreign governments and leading to trouble in the economies of every country. Devaluation is a wild card, according to Petruno, and it can be difficult to predict exactly what will happen because of it. He concludes that it all may come down to whatever China decides —whether to give in to devaluation or keep up the value of its currency.

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Decreased Chinese Demand Harmful to American Exporters

3/6/15 - Labor strikes at ports on the West Coast and the current strength of the American dollar are both contributing greatly to exporters and other businesses that rely on exports. However, Don Lee claims in his Los Angeles Time article that China's slowing economy is causing even more damage to the American market. The strong dollar is not a good thing for most exporters because it makes their products more expensive overseas, in their target market.

While the U.S. economy as a whole seems to be pretty steady, many worry about the effects of significant Chinese withdrawal from American imports. Last year, American exports to China grew only 1.6% while American imports from China grew 5.7%. This trade deficit is bad news for scrap-metal exporters in California, Midwestern manufacturers, and cotton farmers in the Mississippi Delta.

As China's economic growth slows, amid increasing production around the world, China is forced to reduce foreign imports and focus instead on domestic businesses. Even American companies with locations in China are finding it difficult to compete with private Chinese contractors. Fortunately for America, the decrease in trade with China is being somewhat balanced out by increased exports to other countries, including Mexico and Canada. Trade, which has been involved in about one-third of America's economy in recent years, has started to become less-viable as an economic practice.

China is switching from a majorly goods-based economy to more service-based, and according to some of Lee's sources, this may not be a bad thing. Yes, it will have negative effects on businesses and companies reliant on imports and exports, but as a whole, the American economy does better off with services, like finance, accounting, and entertainment. Such service-based businesses are affected to a much lesser extent by the strength of the dollar, which is beneficial for everyone involved.

Besides the slowdown of China's economy, the Chinese president has been cracking down on corruption, forcing government officials to cut back on gifts and parties. Because of this, exporters of such products as fine wines and premium fruits have lost a sizable number of their usual customers. A combination of the new strength of the dollar and an increase in productivity by many countries has driven the prices of commodities down, which could hurt goods-based economies.

According to Lee, the export of agricultural products by California fell 9% last year, due greatly to China's changing economy. Farm shipments on their own plunged by 30%, and other products like grapes and nuts felt dramatic drops in price. The economy as a whole seems to be holding up, but it looks like it is just a matter of time before we are forced to make changes to our economy, or face devastating consequences.

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G-20 Leaders Present Ideas For Economic Reform

11/28/14 - A group composed of the leaders of twenty of the world's largest economies, also called the G-20, held a meeting in Brisbane, Australia, recently, to discuss ways in which each country could contribute to a future restoration of the global economy. An article, by Don Lee of the L.A. Times, summarizes each of the issues addressed by the members of this group, and their plans for change around the world.

The leaders of the G-20 have long been criticized for being slow and ineffective; but, their newest proposition, including over 800 projects designed to add new jobs, may actually cause some positive stimulation to the currently sluggish economies found in most major countries. Sure, these projects may not be perfect, and they will require political support in their respective countries to be enacted, but some plan is better than nothing. The G-20's current plan aims to increase global output by 2% - over $2 trillion and millions of jobs – over the next five years, a hefty goal in and of itself.

While the main focus of this year's G-20 summit was the aforementioned 2% increase in global productivity, several other topics were broached that are usually viewed as less important to the economy, such as anti-corruption legislation, health issues, and climate change. This year's summit in particular made sure to address the fact that there is more to the economy than just jobs and productivity.

The leaders agreed to work on limiting greenhouse gases and other such pollution, while also making commitments to help contain the current Ebola outbreak, both of which have devastating effects on various economies around the world. Tensions at the G-20 summit were stretched thin, as leaders verbally butted heads based on their differing viewpoints regarding such “unrelated” economic principles.

Altogether, though, the G-20 summit seemed to be successful, to a point. No, most of the proposals will not have a dramatic effect on the global economy immediately, but such projects as those suggested at the meeting will definitely have a major effect on the economy of the future. Only these countries and their political leaders can really determine how far away that future lies.

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EB-5 Investment Visas in High Demand

10/3/14 - Some foreigners visit and/or live in America on a student visa, others on a work visa, and still others through diplomatic pathways. However, there is another way, not so well known: investment visas. According to an article by Frank Shyong, of the L.A. Times, Chinese citizens that holds a majority of these visas, which are awarded to those investors who put anywhere between $500,000 and $1 million into various United States businesses.

These visas, called EB-5 visas, which allow wealthy foreigners to immigrate into the United States in exchange for a hefty investment, are unfortunately being stretched too thin. According to Shyong, so many of these visas have been claimed in recent times that they have all but run out. While this program has been around for 24 years, this is the first time in its history that investors had to be turned away, simply because there weren't any of the EB-5 visas left to grant. Even after the beginning of the 2015 fiscal year with new visas available, changes to the system could make the application process much longer, and thus drive away potential investors.

Shyong's statistics show that 85% of EB-5 investors come from China, likely pursuing such immigration opportunities due to economic and environmental downturn in their home country. California, where approximately 25% of such investments are carried out, is filling up with new projects that both contribute millions of dollars into the economy and create jobs for many of our unemployed workers.

While EB-5 visas are helpful, both for the investor and for the American economy, the new restrictions being placed on such visas will have quite an opposite effect. Wealthy investors would be forced to wait up to three years for paperwork to be completed, and even then not know whether they would get the visa or not. Those American businesses relying on EB-5 funds would have to grind to a halt, unable to continue work without the investment money they need. Many politicians are pushing for decreased restrictions in the granting of EB-5 visas, due to the incredible amount of good these investments due for the American economy. While bills have been submitted for approval, all we can really do is wait and hope: Americans, hoping for continued investment in our economy, and Chinese investors, hoping to make it off the waiting list and finally be allowed to hold a visa.

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