Real Estate, The Economy, and News: Great Recession

Showing posts with label Great Recession. Show all posts

Friday, June 3, 2016

CFPB Proposes New Regulations on Payday Loans

In an attempt to avoid situations in which borrowers get stuck in an endless cycle of debt, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released a set of new proposals this Thursday to regulate the market for payday loans and certain types of credit known as being "debt traps." James Rufus Koren, in his L.A. Times article, discusses the new rules and the effects they may have on the economy.

A payday loan is a special type of loan with very high interest rates that is made on the condition that the borrower will pay it back as soon as they receive their paycheck. Unfortunately, according to CFPB Director Richard Cordray, lenders often make the loans knowing that borrowers can't pay them back and will end up stuck in a never-ending cycle of debt. The new rules aim to limit the number of loans a consumer can take out in a year and make the lenders review the finances of potential borrowers much more thoroughly before making a loan. In a healthy credit market, lending and borrowing money should be a win-win situation. Both parties, not just the lender, should benefit from the transaction, and that is the situation the CFPB is trying to remedy.

Lenders have been outraged by the proposed changes, claiming that it will make their business more costly and will cause most of their loans to become unprofitable. The CFPB has responded that it isn't looking to put lenders out of business. Rather, the organization is trying to make sure that customers don't get stuck in debt traps, where they pay off a loan just to find out that they need to take out another loan to have enough money for day-to-day living costs. The new regulations will force the lenders to do in-depth analysis on income and living expenses to determine whether they will be able to make the payments every month without running out of money.

Already, the CFPB has enacted similar regulations for banks and mortgage lenders, but payday lenders may be right in complaining that the new rules are unfair or insensible. Many claim that the process will add time and cost, which hurts everyone. Under current practice, a borrower can walk into a loan branch and leave 20 minutes later with a $250 loan. A detailed analysis of "take-home pay" and expenditures would probably add a lot of cost in the form of fees, which could drive away potential borrowers. Those borrowers could end up going elsewhere to find their loans.

It is likely that the new regulations will naturally stop some people from getting loans. Some people worry about where those people will have to turn to make ends meet. Perhaps some will be forced to get a handle on their finances and will end up much better off in the long-run. Others will have to go to pawn shops or family members for help. Still others may turn to installment lenders, which are not covered under the new rules. The installment lender gives much larger sums of money, with smaller monthly payments over a long period of time, but the borrowers often end up paying more in interest on the loan than the actual value of the loan itself. Analysts believe that the regulations will help somewhat, but only in that they will stretch the debts out onto a longer time line, rather than reducing such debts altogether.

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Friday, May 29, 2015

Potential Issues Caused by Inflation Indexing

5/29/15 - The national minimum wage was first created by Congress in 1938, under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). It was developed to protect workers and ensure that they receive some standard level of pay for their hourly labor. The FLSA banned child labor, set a maximum workweek of 44 hours, and made the minimum rate of pay 25 cents per hour. As inflation has made prices for everything else increase, the minimum wage has increased as well, to its current $7.25 per hour. Many states, however, have their own minimum wages, with some as high as $9 or $10 per hour. In a very controversial decision among business owners and economists, the Los Angeles City Council recently started drafting a plan that would raise the minimum wage annually, raising it to $15 by 2020 and even higher in years to come. Tiffany Hsu and Andrew Khouri, in their LA Times article, address the debate over the wage increase, describing the points made on both sides of the argument.

Raising the minimum wage has always been a difficult undertaking. Through this plan, the minimum wage would go up automatically in response to inflation, which would benefit workers. Unfortunately, inflation also makes rent increase, which will make it more difficult for entrepreneurs, especially owners of small businesses, to be able to afford the higher wages. This would force them to either raise prices or lay off workers. However, prices can only go so high before consumers go elsewhere to make their purchases. This will affect the small businesses most drastically since larger businesses have more flexibility to lower prices without losing as much profit. This competition could potentially lead to a clearing of the market, forcing small businesses out.

This procedure, called inflation indexing, seems to be working well for the twenty-or-so localities with their own wage policies, according to UC Berkeley's Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. Inflation indexing allows the wage to respond directly to increases in the cost of living, without the need for intervention by policy-makers. In an ideal sense, indexing would increase the wage in a gradual manner, rather than shocking the system with large spikes. Int his way, businesses could adjust more easily to changing costs and respond accordingly. Still, consumers and business owners are wary.

Richard LoGuercio, the owner of Town & Country Event Rentals, would only have to raise wages for about 100 of his 430 workers under this policy. However, he fears that he will have to raise wages across the board to keep everyone happy. If minimum-wage laborers are receiving $15 or more per hour, everyone else will want to be paid more for their contributions to the business. As wages increase for the lowest-paid level in a company, wages in the higher levels will likely increase proportionally, which would force price increases and contribute to inflation. Thus, raising the minimum wage continuously in response to inflation could turn into an endless cycle of wage increases.

All in all, the major effects of the minimum wage increase will come down to the actions of consumers. Businesses could lay off workers in response to their increasing costs, but in the end, they will have to raise their prices. Consumers are only willing to spend so much before they decide that a product just isn't worth it. So, as long as consumers are willing to spend a few extra dollars per product, the effects of the wage increases may not be so bad.

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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Plunging Gas Prices May Not Last Long

1/30/15 - Drivers throughout the state and the country have noticed the recent decline in gasoline prices and are hoping that this trend continues for as long as possible. While gasoline was over $3 in most areas a year ago, the cost of gasoline is now at $2 or even less, a nice change for everyone filling up at the pump. Unfortunately, says Don Lee, in his article in the Los Angeles Times, these low prices are unlikely to last long. In fact, he predicts that they will begin to climb within the next few months.

Lee first addresses the main question: why did the oil prices fall in the first place? One of the main answers involves development and usage of new technologies. A somewhat new process called hydraulic fracturing, also known as “fracking,” has become increasingly prevalent in the industry for use in forcing extra oil out of otherwise dry wells. Furthermore, the development of shale oil techniques, which allow for the conversion of organic matter within rocks into synthetic fuels, helps to increase supply.

Following the laws of supply and demand, the increased supply will likely lead to increased demand. This increased demand can give producers of gasoline a reason to increase their prices, which is why Lee expects the price of crude oil to be back on the rise before the year is half-over. Lee does admit, however, that it is possible for prices to stay low, if oil production continues to increase. Otherwise, waning supplies would force prices higher, just as they have done in previous years.

Reduced gasoline prices could have dramatic effects on economies around the world. Countries that produce and export oil, like Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, are likely to suffer because reduced prices mean less income. On the other hand, countries that don't rely on the export of crude oil, like the United States, Japan, South Korea, and China, are predicted to benefit because they pay less for the crude oil they import. Also, their citizens will pay less for gasoline, and will have more money to contribute to the economy in other ways.

Some states in the U.S. Will benefit more than others. Similarly to the situation in the global setting, oil-producing states like North Dakota and Texas will be harmed by low prices, while other states, and the companies within those states, will be unhurt. In fact, the low prices could even lead to an boost in job growth. Even with increases in employment, lowered gas prices could be disastrous in the long run. A lowered price of gas could lower prices for all commodities, which could force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Inflation is a huge risk when dealing with drastic price decreases.

Lee concludes that the huge quantities of oil being produced in Saudi Arabia, which is another factor in the price decrease, may be an attempt by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to force the United States out of the picture. If Saudi oil prices stay low enough for long enough, it could become economically illogical for the United States to continue producing via shale and fracking. Whatever the true reason for the decline in prices, people are enjoying it for however long it may last.

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Where Have All the Workers Gone?

1/16/15 - Unemployment rates have been found to be decreasing throughout the country. The labor force participation rate, on the other hand, which shows the number of people working or not working, rather than just those classified as “unemployed,” has also been shown to be on a downward slope. So, what causes the seeming paradox between these two measurements. According to Michael Hiltzik, in his Los Angeles Times article, this discrepancy is due to a significant number of “missing” workers: those workers who are not working, and at the same time are not considered “unemployed.” Where have these so-called “missing workers” really gone?

How is it possible for both participation rates and unemployment rates to go down? Some economists believe that this phenomenon is due to a lack of effectiveness in current governmental policies meant to create and fill necessary jobs. Such economists theorize that the extreme difficulty many people are having in finding work has led them to stop searching altogether, to drop out of the labor force completely. Hiltzik, on the other hand, disagrees with this conclusion, preferring an alternative explanation.

Hiltzik presents sources in the article that seem to show that up to three-quarters of the perceived decline in participation rate is actually due to such factors as the retirement of baby boomers and the enrollment of workers in universities and other institutions of higher learning, both of which have little to do with the state of the economy. Over the past few decades, participation rates have been steadily declining, for both men and women. Statistics show that as the economy improves, the participation rate should improve as well.

Whatever the reason for the current employment trends, it is evident that the economy needs to get better. Hiltzik concludes his article as such: while the participation rate is declining, there is still room for it to recover. Workers may be out of the labor force due to the Great Recession, or lowering wages, or a variety of other possible reasons, but as the economy improves, workers should return.

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Holiday Shioppers Spending Confidently

1/2/15 - According to a retail analytics firm called ShopperTrak, the biggest shopping day of the year is the Saturday before Christmas. But, what is the second-biggest shopping day? Statistics show, at least for 2014, that the second-biggest shopping day of the year is not Black Friday, as some might expect, but rather the Friday following Christmas. As stated in an article by Tiffany Hsu, Andrew Khouri, and Ronald D. White, of the Los Angeles Times, a combination of post-Christmas sales, optimism regarding the slowly-recovering economy, and even the calendar's placement of Christmas on a Thursday, come together to make the day after Christmas the perfect time to shop.

Christmas falling on a Thursday can have quite an impact on retail sales. For many, this turns into a four-day weekend, which could give consumers a full three days to shop. Such a “blockbuster” weekend could end the year with a bang, ensuring the National Retail Federation's prediction that this season's revenue would pull in approximately $616.9 billion.

Even more effective than the holiday's placement on the calendar, though, is the slowly-returning faith of the general population in our local and national economies. With a lowering of gas prices and a slow increase in employment, people find that they have more money to spend on those items they want, not just what they need. Consumers are beginning to have more faith in the continuity of their employment; they feel a good degree of job security. With that sense of job security comes increased spending, as consumers are more willing to make purchases when they feel sure of a steady income.

Retail stores have done well in predicting the amount of inventory they need this year. Instead of purchasing too little inventory and running out, or purchasing too much and having to cut into their bottom lines, it appears that the retailers have done well with their inventory, thus maximizing revenue. Online retailers have improved their on-time deliveries, compared with previous years, thus giving consumers more confidence in ordering gifts through the internet.

The days following Christmas are great for gift card redemption. Knowing this, retailers provide extra discounts, hoping that such gift cards will be used to purchase excess inventory. Store prices are down after Christmas, and wallets tend to be fatter, both of which prod consumers to spend. People seem to be happier with the current direction of the economy, and that is helping the economy even more.

While current discounts will certainly bleed over to the next year, retailers are accepting it as a positive trade-off. The first quarter of the coming year may not bring in as much money as retailers would like, but sources show that the second and third quarters are quite likely to bring great improvement for the economy in the coming year.

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Labor Force Participation Rates Declining

12/19/14 - To the average observer, it would appear that California’s economy is steadily recovering. Unemployment rates are down, and new jobs are being introduced at a constant pace. Yet, in Tiffany Hsu’s L.A. Times article, it is revealed that the labor force is much smaller than it may seem.

Unemployment rates are measured based on the number of people receiving unemployment benefits from the government, not necessarily based on the number of people actually without work. Once someone has given up and stopped looking for work altogether, they are no longer considered “unemployed,” since they no longer qualify for unemployment benefits. So, “unemployment rates” tend to be quite misleading.

According to Hsu’s sources, the more accurate measurement of the labor force’s stability is the “labor force participation rate” – the number of people working or actively looking for work in proportion to the number of working-age individuals in the population. This, compared to the “unemployment rate” is more accurate in that it takes into account individuals who have given up on finding employment. The currently falling labor force participation rate has dramatic implications on the state of the economy.

A drop in the participation rate could mean that the jobs available are not the jobs people need. For many with college degrees and experience in well-paying fields, a plethora of jobs in the fast food industry means very little. Even for those who are willing to “lower their standards” and accept jobs for which they are “overqualified,” like a barista or salesperson, such positions have so much competition that the odds of gaining employment are slight. In the end, many individuals simply prefer to stay unemployed rather than risk losing such government benefits as Supplemental Security Income or Social Security Disability Insurance.

No matter what the reason, a decrease in the participation rate can’t be a good thing. With more seniors continuing to work well into their sixties and seventies, and new graduates looking for work straight out of school, only so many positions are available to recently laid-off workers. If higher-paying positions are unavailable in California, job-seekers will look elsewhere for employment, and that can have consequences.

While a decline in unemployment rates may seem like a positive sign, Hsu shows why this positive impact is limited. Statistics are misleading, but the bottom line is this: we need to get people back into the labor force. The state has been creating new jobs, but mainly in lower-paying fields. Workers, especially those with college degrees, want to work in jobs “worthy” of their skills. Thus, to bring the workers back in, the creation of better jobs must be a priority.

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Home Equity Used For Long-Term Investments

12/12/14 - A decade ago, before the Great Recession hit in full effect, it was common for people to take out a line of credit on the equity of their homes. This “quick cash” was spent non-productively, used to buy groceries or spent on vacations, rather than being used as an investment. Over time, people began to cease such “wasteful” ventures and have slowly been learning to use Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) in a smarter manner. In his article in the Los Angeles Times, Kenneth Harney describes how a recent increase in the use of such lines of credit is a good thing for the economy.

Although such HELOCs were once a way for people to pull money out of their homes for regular expenses, people have generally learned not to jeopardize the equity of their homes unless investing in something safe. For example, most of those who took money through a HELOC used it to make improvements on their homes, or to pay off higher-interest debts, such as those on credit cards. Both of these provide long-term benefits for the home-owner. Thus, it is shown that tapping into home equity is not always a bad thing. For those who make smart investments using the line of credit, home equity can be used and quickly earned back.

Until recently, most home-owners were wary of HELOCs, remembering the negative consequences that had arisen from the use of such funds for day-to-day expenses. Now, though, equity lines are up 21%, which, according to Harney's sources, could mean that people are starting to become more confident in the economy's stability. With less fear of economic collapse and an improvement in equity and interest rates, more home-owners consider a line of equity to be a “safe investment.”

Besides a stabilizing economy, HELOCs have become safer because of a crackdown by lenders. Lenders have become more careful as to who they lend to, making sure that credit scores and financial reserves are up to par. As Harney concludes, now is the time to look into home equity lines of credit. Such money, if used right, could have a dramatic economic impact, both personally and nationally.

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G-20 Leaders Present Ideas For Economic Reform

11/28/14 - A group composed of the leaders of twenty of the world's largest economies, also called the G-20, held a meeting in Brisbane, Australia, recently, to discuss ways in which each country could contribute to a future restoration of the global economy. An article, by Don Lee of the L.A. Times, summarizes each of the issues addressed by the members of this group, and their plans for change around the world.

The leaders of the G-20 have long been criticized for being slow and ineffective; but, their newest proposition, including over 800 projects designed to add new jobs, may actually cause some positive stimulation to the currently sluggish economies found in most major countries. Sure, these projects may not be perfect, and they will require political support in their respective countries to be enacted, but some plan is better than nothing. The G-20's current plan aims to increase global output by 2% - over $2 trillion and millions of jobs – over the next five years, a hefty goal in and of itself.

While the main focus of this year's G-20 summit was the aforementioned 2% increase in global productivity, several other topics were broached that are usually viewed as less important to the economy, such as anti-corruption legislation, health issues, and climate change. This year's summit in particular made sure to address the fact that there is more to the economy than just jobs and productivity.

The leaders agreed to work on limiting greenhouse gases and other such pollution, while also making commitments to help contain the current Ebola outbreak, both of which have devastating effects on various economies around the world. Tensions at the G-20 summit were stretched thin, as leaders verbally butted heads based on their differing viewpoints regarding such “unrelated” economic principles.

Altogether, though, the G-20 summit seemed to be successful, to a point. No, most of the proposals will not have a dramatic effect on the global economy immediately, but such projects as those suggested at the meeting will definitely have a major effect on the economy of the future. Only these countries and their political leaders can really determine how far away that future lies.

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Credit Unions Providing Home Loans

11/21/14 - While home loans were once the responsibility of major financial institutions like banks, the post-recession mortgage loans have slowly but surely been making their way into the realm of the credit unions. Such credit unions have been amassing members, and currently own over 8% of all mortgages, three times as much as were owned before the Great Recession. Lew Sichelman's L.A. Times article goes into how these credit union loans can actually be preferable to those provided by “standard” institutions.

Credit unions, which are member-controlled, provide an alternative to common loan institutions that commonly increase the cost of a loan through miscellaneous fees. Anyone can join a credit union, and their non-profit standing keeps people interested in their loans, especially with our currently troubled housing market. During the recession, while many lenders pulled back and restricted the loans they were willing to grant, credit unions stayed open, making their loans available to those whom they deemed a worthwhile risk.

These lenders are different; they are run by the people. Every member has a say in how the union should be run, and this is a big part of why credit unions have been increasing in success. While mortgage loans were once a minimal area of focus for credit unions, new interest has led to mortgage loans encompassing over 40% of all loans provided by such institutions. The interest rates on credit union loans may be the same as those from other lenders, but a more personal touch of a credit union appears to be one of the factors drawing in new customers. Borrowers, of late, tend to have more faith in them, rather than in the banks and other lenders that once held the vast majority of mortgages and other such loans.

Although they are still relatively new to most, credit unions are gaining ground as they accomplish various goals. The common mortgage loan from a credit union is the normal, 30-year fixed rate, but many of these institutions have been applying innovative new techniques to make these loans more manageable. From ways of scheduling your mortgage so that you finish at a specific time, to loans that reset their interest rates to market level every five years, credit unions have developed ways to make their loans as consumer-friendly as possible. All in all, a standard banking institution may be great, but credit unions might be an option for many potential borrowers to seriously consider.

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FHA Set To Re-institute Quick-Flip Restrictions

11/14/14 - The Federal Housing Administration, a federal agency involved in providing mortgage loans to real estate investors, is set to reinforce restrictions that were lowered in 2010 in an effort to help the weak housing market. These restrictions set a minimum of 90 days for investors who wish to buy a home and “flip” it, by fixing it up and reselling it. The 90 day period between buying and selling is meant to prevent the selling of poorly-fixed houses for “hyper-inflated” prices. On the other hand, forcing flippers to hold onto a house for 90 days raises their costs, which they then have to incorporate into their selling price. An article by Kenneth Harney of the L.A. Times investigates the positive and negative aspects of the FHA's restrictive 90-day flipping period.

By waiving the 90-day flip period in 2010, the FHA enabled investors to buy, fix, and sell houses quickly and at lower cost, thus allowing first-time home-buyers to more easily find homes in a lower price range. These quick-flips benefited both investors and buyers, lowering prices across the board. Because of the decreased restriction, over 100,000 homes were revitalized and sold, thus improving the housing market.

This improvement is the reason for the FHA's reinstitution of the 90-day flip period. The waiver program has done what it was meant to do: it stimulated home sales, thus stabilizing the market and allowing newcomers the chance to become home-owners. The program has worked relatively well so far, but such a program always has its possible dangers.

In the past, before the 90-day period existed, investors would commonly resell seemingly well-maintained houses, which were nothing more than run-down homes with a fresh coat of paint. This would lead to buyers defaulting on their mortgages, and the FHA would be forced to cover the losses. By forcing investors to take at least 90 days in fixing the houses for resale, the sellers are encouraged to actually do a decent job on the construction.

Whether the restrictive 90-day period is a good or bad thing is a matter of opinion. Yes, forcing flippers to hold onto a property for longer than they need to would raise sale prices, but allowing quick-flippers to sell dilapidated properties at synthetically-high price would also hurt the housing market. The main point addressed in Harney's article is this: whether you like it or not, the FHA has made its decision. The waiver program will stop at the end of December, and the 90-day resale period will come back into practice at the beginning of 2015.

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Los Angeles: A Leader in Technology

10/8/14 - When many people think about the relationship between California and technology, Silicon Valley tends to be the first connection to jump into their minds. Santa Clara County, home to Silicon Valley, does indeed have plenty of technology-based jobs, but is it really Number One? According to Tim Logan's article in the L.A. Times, the real leader, at least in sheer numbers, is Los Angeles County.

A study performed by Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation produced results showing that L.A. has over 368,000 jobs in the technology sector, more than both Santa Clara's 313,000 and Boston's 361,000. While Los Angeles was once a powerhouse for careers in entertainment, jobs involving technology, including aerospace, architecture, engineering, and software design, have become much more common in the Los Angeles of today.

Not only is the number of jobs in technology growing; the pay rate for these careers is on the rise as well. Jobs in the high tech industry can pay approximately $87,000 per year, a difference of over $30,000 compared to the lower-paying jobs in non-technological industries. As Logan's article states, while 9% of the country's jobs are in high-tech industries, 17% of all wages in the country go to those employees in such industries.

In summation, Los Angeles is in the midst of a technological boom. With the push for faster production, in a world of instant gratification, technology is the way of the future. As people need the creation of newer innovations, high-tech industries will continue to grow. With the evolution of newer technologies and better jobs, this trend may, in the long run, have a dramatic effect on the economy as a whole, not just for those individuals in the high-tech industries.

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Buying vs. Renting: Pros and Cons

9/19/14 - Prior to the Great Recession, the question of buying versus renting was never really an issue at all. If you could get a mortgage, then buying was the best way to go. Even after the housing market crash, there was still plenty of interest in buying rather than renting. If people had some money to do it, then buying was generally their course of action. However, with real estate prices, especially in Southern California, on the rise, and very few “bargain homes” available, potential buyers are being much more careful in deciding whether they really want to enter the market. In a Los Angeles Times article, Tim Logan discusses the potential positive and negative aspects of either buying or renting.

The decision is a hard one for many. Yes, the housing prices have gone up dramatically, but the interest rates on mortgages are lower than they have been in years. Renting makes it easier to pick up and leave, but owning a home has a huge payoff in the long term. According to Logan, a survey of renters showed that most do plan to buy, but are unsure as to how soon. Furthermore, some statistics presented by Logan show that, over the span of seven years, buying can cost you over 20% more money than renting.

The prices of homes are not the only thing deterring potential buyers. It's all about location, location, location. In some areas in Southern California (Lancaster, San Bernardino, etc.), foreclosures make the monthly mortgage payments lower than average rent payments. In other areas (San Marino, Newport Beach, etc.), the return of seven-figure price tags make rent much more affordable than mortgage. Besides the costs of homes and apartments in certain areas, differences in construction choices can limit a home-hunter's options. For example, some areas are busy building new apartment buildings, while others are designing condos and houses. If there are very few houses available in your area, then buying might not be an option. According to Logan's sources, new construction has been mostly for rental properties, likely due to developers' fears of another housing crash.

Apparently, members of the younger generation are statistically more likely to want to rent, not yet willing to “tie themselves down” to something like home ownership. However, even “prime” first-time buyers (married, early 30s, income of at least $95,000) have lately become hesitant toward buying property. Logan's sources claim that this hesitation is due to the housing crash. These first-time buyers witnessed the colossal blow that the recession made on their parents' financial situation, and are leery as to how good of an investment home ownership really is.

As Logan states, this hesitation can be a good thing, preventing buyers from jumping into the realm of home-ownership without the necessary means to make their monthly payments. By making sure that they know what they are getting into, this new, more realistic, outlook of buyers will hopefully prevent another crash in the near future.

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Banks Held Responsible for Housing Market Crash

9/12/14 - Three of the country's largest banks have been facing all kinds of financial and legal repercussions in the aftermath of the housing crash that contributed greatly to the Great Recession. Bank of America, who, in 2008, bought out a couple of failing firms: Countrywide Financial Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co., are now suffering the consequences of “the worst deal in banking history.” An article by Jim Puzzanghera and Walter Hamilton, of the L.A. Times, described the various legal problems and penalties that Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citigroup Inc. have had to face over the past year.

Even between BofA's record-breaking $16.65 billion settlement, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s $13 billion settlement, and Citigroup Inc.'s $7 billion settlement, these three penalties only make up a fraction of the total amount gathered from such financial institutions. According to Puzzanghera and Hamilton, approximately $125 billion in settlements related to the financial crash have been paid by the six largest banking institutions alone. While some of BofA's penalties are due to the pre-recession actions of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide, every bank has problems of its own.

Out of the many billions of dollars paid in penalties and settlements by these banking institutions, over 50% of this money goes to several federal agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as a few states that were most affected by the banks' practices. California by itself has been designated $300 million from the settlements to help reimburse two of its largest pension funds: the Public Employees' Retirement System and the Teachers' Retirement System. The rest goes toward “ consumer relief,” which involves write-downs of mortgage principal or reductions in interest rates on the mortgage. According to Puzzanghera and Hamilton, rates could be reduced to as low as 2%.

While many people and federal institutions blame Bank of America for many of the practices that contributed to the housing crash and the Great Recession, others feel that it is unfair to punish BofA shareholders for the actions taken by executives and employees at Merrill Lynch and Countrywide. While criminal suits against Angelo Mozilo, the former Countrywide chief executive, have been dropped since his involvement didn't quite “rise to the level of a crime,” many prosecutors are continuing to pursue civil cases against him in the hopes of finding some way of holding him responsible for his actions and the actions of his employees.

Now that these proceeding are, for the most part, done with, investors can hopefully breathe easier in the coming future. According to experts, these penalties will only affect the current quarter, and that by the third quarter, profits should be back up to their usual levels. While it is great that these financial institutions are being held responsible for their decisions, I personally am skeptical as to how these penalties are going to have a long-lasting effect on pulling us out of the Great Recession. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

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High End Home Sales: On The Rise

8/15/14 - Recent housing statistics show that, while the housing market as a whole has been at a bit of an impasse, home sales on the upper end of the spectrum appear to be steadily increasing. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, lenders have become more cautious, preferring to fund mortgages for borrowers with cash on hand and access to credit, as compared to the average American home-buyer. This split between buyers has led to a split in housing sales, thus resulting in this recent trend of increased million-dollar home sales, especially in California. In an L.A. Times article, writer Tim Logan discusses this phenomenon and what it means for attempted rebuilding of California's housing market.

Logan looks into how first-time buyers, what with much stricter loan regulations and a not-so-stable jobs market, are having trouble taking their first step into the realm of home ownership. On the other hand, wealthy investors, with available cash, are more able to benefit from current low interest rates. While average California housing prices are getting toward the high six-figures, it appears that from the San Francisco Bay Area to Southern California, seven-figure home sales have become more common than ever.

Even for older home buyers, of the “Baby Boomer” generation, purchases of homes with seven-figure price tags have become all the more prevalent. For these buyers, looking to downsize, the cash that they gain from selling a large house goes into the purchase of a high-end condominium, such as those produced by City Ventures, which go for around $1.5 million on average. However, while these buyers pay all cash for such properties, Logan presents statistics showing that 70% of recent million-dollar home sales in California were accompanied by a mortgage, illustrating the way in which buyers are taking advantage of historically-low interest rates.

Logan shows throughout this article how beneficial the current housing market is – at least, for wealthy, high-end buyers. Even for the average buyer, although they have more difficulty getting loans, these low interest rates can help them to purchase homes on the upper end of the housing spectrum, since low interest rates mean more affordable monthly payments over the course of a mortgage. Thus, while this article shows that lower interest rates have been helping those with cash on hand, individuals looking for a fancier home or an investment property, perhaps lenders will soon enough loosen their grip, allowing for the average home-buyer to also benefit from these lower interest rates.

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Saving Versus Spending: The Ultimate Conundrum

8/8/14 - In times of financial hardship, it is quite common for individuals to build a wall around their finances, to save rather than invest, and statistics show that consumers have been squirreling away any extra cash on hand, ever since the Great Recession first hit. With low interest rates on savings accounts and constant fluctuation of the stock market, it appears that, at this point in time, consumers have little choice but to pad their checking accounts rather than risk losing their savings. An article by E. Scott Reckard of the L.A. Times discusses the economic implications of this phenomenon of consumer saving as opposed to spending and investing.

Before the Great Recession hit, the average American was known for extravagant spending, for commonly over-drafting his/her checking account, and for holding very little savings in a “just in case” account. After we were hit hard by the economic downturn, it seems as if consumer saving has gone into overdrive, as if to compensate for their previous lax attitude toward their finances. While this new development in consumer saving is helping individuals to ride out the ups and downs of economic recovery, this situation does not bode well for continued economic stabilization.

According to Reckard, about two-thirds of economic recovery is represented by consumer spending. Thus, if consumers are saving rather than spending, the recovery is doomed to slow, maybe even halt altogether. With more individuals holding onto money rather than funneling it back into the economy, businesses have less capital on hand to hire new employees. While employment-to-active-searcher rates have improved markedly in past months, the so-called employment-to-population rates are still suffering, and these high rates of unemployment make people want to save even more, in fear that one day their employment might also be terminated.

Thus, while this new development is helping consumers to pay off debt and to learn to keep a “rainy day” fund, this cautious practice of high saving and low spending is not having such a great effect on the economy as a whole. However, as Reckard states, with inflation going down and income going up, it may just be a matter of time before consumers decide to invest once again. All in all, the main message is this: consumers have turned their manner of economic thinking on its head. While these sudden increases in responsible spending and lower rates of overdraft should be celebrated on the individual level, the economy now needs to find some other way to help its recovery.

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Unemployment Rates: Going Down?

7/28/14 - A main indication of a recovering economy is a lowering of unemployment rates, and, according to an article by Jim Puzzanghera of the L.A. Times, the American economy may be seeing precisely that trend. According to current statistics, Puzzanghera states, the number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits is at its lowest since February 2006.

Of course, this only measures first-time claims for unemployment benefits, not continuing claims nor claims from individuals laid off more than once in the term. Thus, all that these statistics really measure is how many individuals have been laid off for the first time and have filed for unemployment benefits. That being said, Puzzanghera also presents statistics to show that the total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits has dropped to 2.5 million, the lowest since June 2007.

These numbers, however, can also be skewed, as they measure only individuals receiving benefits, not necessarily the number of individuals actually unemployed. The Labor Department doesn't count individuals who are still unemployed but whose benefits have run out, nor does it count individuals who have quit the job search altogether.

While it is true that statistics can be warped, so as to present the data in a more favorable way, it seems that even when such changes have been accounted for, the number of jobless individuals has indeed been going down in recent weeks. The numbers are looking up for the labor force and the American economy, and this may just be the beginning of our ascent from the seemingly bottomless pit into which we were dropped when the Great Recession first hit.

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