How to Make a Successful Retirement Plan

Even for those people who love what they do, retirement is one of those things that constantly stays in the back of everyone's mind. To determine when you'll be ready for retirement, there are a variety of factors that have to be weighed. What percentage of your income can you be comfortable living on? Do you plan to retire completely or try out a new career? These questions and more help to determine how long you would have to work before retiring. Dave Rowan's L.A. Times article sums up some of the major points made by financial planning expert Craig Israelson on the finances behind a successful retirement.

The first topic he mentions is known as the "4% Rule." According to this rule, it is possible to withdraw 4% of one's retirement savings from an investment portfolio each year without ever running out of money. Financial planners set the optimal amount at 4%, but some retirees have to withdraw less, while others who have saved for longer are able to withdraw more without running out. This concept, however, doesn't really help people in their 40s or 50s, who are planning for a retirement in the distant future. For those closer to retirement, the 4% Rule helps because it allows them to determine if they have enough money in savings to combine with other sources of retirement income and have enough money to cover a projected budget.

Israelson has a different method called "RAM" that allows younger people to plan for retirement far down the line. This method involves a lot more mathematical calculations but gives future retirees a way to calculate how financially stable they would be at each age. RAM, or retirement account multiple, calculates the probability that a retiree would never run out of money if they retired at 65, lived to 100, and withdrew half of their final yearly salary (the salary being earned at 65 based on inflation rate of 3%) as an addition to other retirement income like Social Security. Based on Israelson's calculations, a RAM value of 7 or higher means that the retiree is in good shape and will have over 70% likelihood of never running out of money if they live to 100 years old. A RAM value of 18 or higher means that the retiree will never run out of money, no matter how the economy changes.

The RAM is calculated as follows:

First, the retiree's final salary is calculated based on a 3% inflation rate.

Final Salary = Current Salary x (1.03)^(65 - Current Age)

Next, the total amount the retiree will have in savings is calculated based on an average value of 7% as the increase in the value of their retirement portfolio.

Final Retirement Savings = Current Savings x (1.07)^(65 - Current Age)

Finally, the RAM value is calculated using those two values.

Projected RAM = Final Retirement Savings / Final Salary

The more you are able to save now, the better off you will be in the long run. However, it depends on the person. Some people are comfortable with spending money now to enjoy a higher standard of living, even if it means they will have a RAM score closer to 7. Others look for any way to reduce expenditures today in order to get a RAM closer to 18, to ensure that they won't have to worry about their future finances. Additionally, the previous RAM calculations didn't include additions to the retirement portfolio. If someone were to continuously save and invest more money toward retirement, they would find their RAM value increasing, based on the following calculation:

Extra Retirement Savings = [(Current Salary + Final Salary) / 2] x (Savings Rate) x (65 - Current Age)

Of course, these calculations aren't perfect, since the economy is constantly fluctuating and many assumptions have to be made about future income and changes in saving patterns. However, it should be able to give savers a good look at how well off they will be in their retired years. The RAM is simply an approximation method, not an exact science, but it should give people a sense of whether they will retire successfully and how long they may have to wait to do so. 

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Global Economy Feeling the Effects of America's Powerful Dollar

4/13/15 - Over the past nine months, the value of the dollar has increased dramatically, and Americans are loving it. While the average person is now able to get much further in other countries with the same amount of money as in previous years, Tom Petruno's L.A. Times article predicts that the dollar's raised value will have negative repercussions for the global economy and even the American economy in the long run. Devaluation of currency is becoming a trend around the world, and that will be bad for everyone.


The value of a euro has decreased by 25%, now at just $1.09, from $1.37 a year ago. In countries that don't use the euro, the difference is even greater: 30% in Sweden, 40% in Brazil, and 61% in Russia. This causes more Americans to change their vacation plans, leading to a preference for foreign, rather than domestic, travel destinations. While this is helpful in providing revenue for other countries, American tourist destinations like California and New York find it harder to bring in foreign visitors, as costs are rising from their perspective.


Petruno's research shows that the rising value of the dollar may not be due to an improvement in the American economy, but rather a devaluation of comparative currencies. When the currency of a country lowers in value, prices of goods go down, which causes consumers to purchase more of these “on sale” goods. Petruno believes that this phenomenon of devaluing currency is actually being assisted by federal governments in an attempt to increase demand and aid economic growth. Unfortunately, if this continues, each country will have to devalue their currency more and more to compete with each other, and America will be one of the only consumers in a sea of low prices, which will in turn harm the selling power of American companies.


Fortunately for Californian companies, a large amount of foreign investment comes from China. Since the value of China's currency has remained relatively steady compared to that of the dollar, Chinese tourists to the L.A. area have maintained a consistent degree of purchasing power. U.S. imports are up, and although the costs for these imports have lowered, more importing means less investment in domestic production.


U.S. companies lose money by reduced competitiveness against foreign companies, but more immediately, lose money due to the conversion factor between currencies. As the dollar's value goes up, and the value of foreign currency goes down, American companies are forced to accept less money from a sale than would have been earned previously. However, this has a lesser effect on the American economy as a whole, since the U.S. economy does not rely heavily on exports.


Although the value of the dollar is up, businesses are making less money because of the aforementioned competition and reduced foreign sales. Because of this, quarterly earnings are down, and stocks may begin to plunge because of it. Even in the European stock market, which has been on the rise, American investors receive reduced returns on their investments as the falling value of the euro removes some of the value of the stock.


Petruno concludes that the devaluation game is a slippery slope. Best-case scenario is that demand will move to other countries, improving the global economy without hurting American companies enough to start another recession. Worst-case scenario is that the currencies will be forced into a downward spiral, leading to debt defaults by foreign governments and leading to trouble in the economies of every country. Devaluation is a wild card, according to Petruno, and it can be difficult to predict exactly what will happen because of it. He concludes that it all may come down to whatever China decides —whether to give in to devaluation or keep up the value of its currency.

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Lowering Interest Rates: A Continuing Trend?

7/14/14 - Interest rates are a large part of measuring an economy's strength, stability, and ability to recover. For the average American, there is no ideal interest rate; it all depends on one's status. For older Americans, relying on the interest accrued from a pension fund or savings account, low interest rates can be devastating, helping very little to increase their principal investment. On the other hand, low interest rates can mean lower mortgage rates, more affordable loans, and improvement of the stock market. In his article, Tom Petruno of the Los Angeles Times investigates interest rates, their effect on the economy, and predictions of future changes.

In most countries, the interest rates are controlled by a main federal banking organization: the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or the Bank of Japan, to name just a few. These organizations command changes in the short-term interest rate, and as of recently, have been holding them as low as possible, in an attempt to stimulate economic growth in the form of real estate, corporate loans, and stock market investment.

Although the Federal Reserve publicly predicts interest rates to be up to 2.5% by 2016, several members of the policy committee remain skeptical as to the magnitude of this rate increase. While they disagree as to the amount, they seem to concur as to one main idea: America of the post-Great Recession era will take quite a while to regain its previous economic stature. Of the many sources Petruno cites in this article, one message stands out: don't rely on a return to “normal” interest rates, for the economy still has a ways to go.

While central banks control short-term interest rates, such long-term rates as on bonds are affected more by the principle of supply and demand. As demand for bonds decreases, the banks offer higher interest rates as an incentive to increase demand, and as demand increases, banks have more leeway to lower interest rates without affecting sales too drastically. Thus, the interest rates on bonds have been falling lower and lower due to increased consumer demand for such “safer” investments.

According to Petruno, even though interest rates have been at all-time lows, inflation could reverse this trend. As prices and wages increase, long-term interest rates could be driven up markedly by bond investors. According to the Federal Reserve, the current national inflation rate is at target levels, around 2%. While some analysts believe that the inflation rate will continue to increase, in the long run, it appears to remain steady, especially given that wages aren't increasing along with the costs of goods and services. Due to high unemployment, and a dramatic shift to more part-time work, the current rise in prices is predicted to decrease, given that lower wages can't fuel a sustained increase in costs.

In concluding the article, Petruno brings up the following point: while the funneling of money into central banks has not, as of yet, triggered a dramatic improvement in the national economy, such an improvement due to this money could have negative consequences, namely high inflation. It seems like the solution to fixing the American economy relies mainly on time and patience. Interest rates are slowly climbing, and the economy appears to be healing, albeit slowly. Thus, all we can really do is watch and wait.

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