Showing posts with label Devaluation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Devaluation. Show all posts

Friday, May 6, 2016

Bitcoin's True Founder - Revealed at Last?



Bitcoins are a form of electronic currency first introduced to the public in 2009 by a creator who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The "mining" of these Bitcoins is performed by computer software following a mathematical proof. The software is open-sourced, which means anyone can use it and check it out to see how it works. Recently, as discussed in Samantha Masunaga's L.A. Times article, an Australian businessman and computer scientist named Craig Wright came out of the shadows and provided evidence showing that he may, in fact, be the elusive Mr. Nakamoto.

Bitcoin's protocols make it impossible to churn out an endless supply of Bitcoins; only 21 million coins can ever be produced by "miners." That's one of the things that sets the electronic currency apart from more "traditional" currencies. With dollars or Euros or any other form of government-backed currency, an unlimited number of bills and coins could theoretically be printed. Sometimes it is done to provide a shock to try to start a stagnant economy, but, more often than not, it results in massive inflation and more economic downturn than before. There is a limit on the number of Bitcoins in the world, which means their value is pretty stable, and inflation doesn't really exist.

Additionally, while central banks can charge exorbitant fees to someone trying to open up an account or someone trying to send funds internationally, Bitcoin cuts out many of those fees. A Bitcoin account can be created in a matter of seconds, with no fees. The decentralization of Bitcoin's network means that there is no bank to default on any loans, so you know your "funds" are safe. Best of all, the network is extremely transparent since every transaction is recorded in a secure "blockchain" that can be added to, but never changed. Unfortunately, most normal retailers don't accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. Over recent years, however, Bitcoin has become much more prevalent, especially with online retailers, so it is expected to come into more widespread use.

Although Wright, an entrepreneur with several masters' degrees and a couple of doctorates, came out with some proof showing that he may be the true creator of Bitcoin, there are still many doubters. In his digital messages claiming to be "Satoshi Nakamoto," he signed off using certain cryptographic keys that could be found in Nakamoto's work in the early days of Bitcoin. He also published a very technical post on his blog with information that no one but Bitcoin's true creator should have. Wright claims that he has chosen now to reveal his identity because he is tired of the misinformation being spread about Bitcoin and its stability. Additionally, the media has long suspected Wright's alter-ego, and he wanted to put an end to the investigations into him and his family. While he hasn't provided undeniable proof, it seems very likely that Satoshi Nakamoto's secret identity has finally been revealed to the world.

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Friday, August 21, 2015

Devaluation of the Yuan Affects California's Economy



To shopping centers throughout the Southland, busloads of Chinese tourists are a necessary and regularly expected source of income. Especially in summer months, some places like the Beverly Center get an average of 70 such buses per month, full of tourists ready to spend. Shan Li, Samantha Masunaga, and Andrew Khouri wrote recently in their L.A. Times article about how recent devaluation of the Chinese yuan could have positive and negative effects on various California businesses.

Where 2.2 million Chinese tourists to the U.S. spent nearly $24 billion in 2014, 12.6% more than in 2013, many expect that such spending will likely slow down in the coming months. Up until recently, tourists found that their money would stretch much further on brand-name products in California than in China, but as the yuan loses value, that is beginning to change. Furthermore, even as a decrease in tourism hurts stores and shopping centers, it also affects sales on a larger scale. For certain luxury brands, like Coach, a decrease in sales to tourists leads to a decrease in earning, which causes stock prices to fall.

The current economic trifecta in China (slowing of the economy, devaluation of the currency, and a crackdown on political corruption) has led tourists to become more careful with their spending, according to Li, Masunaga, and Khouri. However, they point out that while the yuan loss in value hurts local retailers, it can actually be quite helpful for importers. For U.S. businesses that import Chinese products, the devaluation of the yuan means that the dollar stretches much further than it did before. Since importers will take advantage of this situation and increase purchasing, experts predict that California's ports will get plenty of use in the coming months. This will help to provide jobs for dockworkers, truck drivers, and warehouse workers.

Unfortunately for exporters, such positive outcomes are not likely. They are expected to suffer far more than local businesses due to the fact that import taxes in China can range as high as 20 to 30%.
Some tourists who come to the U.S. regularly anyway to visit family or send their children to summer camp may continue shopping in the U.S. for such luxury goods, but it wouldn't make economic sense for Chinese companies to continue importing American goods when the value of the yuan is so far outweighed by the value of the dollar. Costs would be much higher, especially on top of the exorbitant import taxes, and so it would be unlikely that American exporters would find business improving while the yuan's devaluation continues.

As Louis Glickman once said, "The best investment on Earth is earth." Analysts expect that as the yuan's value continues to plunge, Chinese investors will slow down the purchase of American products and focus on American real estate. Since the dollar remains relatively steady, many such investors will prefer to "park" their money in a building, rather than hold onto the quickly-devaluing cash. The increasing prevalence of property investment could help to dull the effects of the reduction in retail. However, economists warn that China's economy is connected to our own. If China's economy starts to fail, then that won't be good news for the U.S.

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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Global Economy Feeling the Effects of America's Powerful Dollar




4/13/15 - Over the past nine months, the value of the dollar has increased dramatically, and Americans are loving it. While the average person is now able to get much further in other countries with the same amount of money as in previous years, Tom Petruno's L.A. Times article predicts that the dollar's raised value will have negative repercussions for the global economy and even the American economy in the long run. Devaluation of currency is becoming a trend around the world, and that will be bad for everyone.


The value of a euro has decreased by 25%, now at just $1.09, from $1.37 a year ago. In countries that don't use the euro, the difference is even greater: 30% in Sweden, 40% in Brazil, and 61% in Russia. This causes more Americans to change their vacation plans, leading to a preference for foreign, rather than domestic, travel destinations. While this is helpful in providing revenue for other countries, American tourist destinations like California and New York find it harder to bring in foreign visitors, as costs are rising from their perspective.


Petruno's research shows that the rising value of the dollar may not be due to an improvement in the American economy, but rather a devaluation of comparative currencies. When the currency of a country lowers in value, prices of goods go down, which causes consumers to purchase more of these “on sale” goods. Petruno believes that this phenomenon of devaluing currency is actually being assisted by federal governments in an attempt to increase demand and aid economic growth. Unfortunately, if this continues, each country will have to devalue their currency more and more to compete with each other, and America will be one of the only consumers in a sea of low prices, which will in turn harm the selling power of American companies.


Fortunately for Californian companies, a large amount of foreign investment comes from China. Since the value of China's currency has remained relatively steady compared to that of the dollar, Chinese tourists to the L.A. area have maintained a consistent degree of purchasing power. U.S. imports are up, and although the costs for these imports have lowered, more importing means less investment in domestic production.


U.S. companies lose money by reduced competitiveness against foreign companies, but more immediately, lose money due to the conversion factor between currencies. As the dollar's value goes up, and the value of foreign currency goes down, American companies are forced to accept less money from a sale than would have been earned previously. However, this has a lesser effect on the American economy as a whole, since the U.S. economy does not rely heavily on exports.


Although the value of the dollar is up, businesses are making less money because of the aforementioned competition and reduced foreign sales. Because of this, quarterly earnings are down, and stocks may begin to plunge because of it. Even in the European stock market, which has been on the rise, American investors receive reduced returns on their investments as the falling value of the euro removes some of the value of the stock.


Petruno concludes that the devaluation game is a slippery slope. Best-case scenario is that demand will move to other countries, improving the global economy without hurting American companies enough to start another recession. Worst-case scenario is that the currencies will be forced into a downward spiral, leading to debt defaults by foreign governments and leading to trouble in the economies of every country. Devaluation is a wild card, according to Petruno, and it can be difficult to predict exactly what will happen because of it. He concludes that it all may come down to whatever China decides —whether to give in to devaluation or keep up the value of its currency.

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