Real Estate, The Economy, and News

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Labor Force Participation Rates Declining

12/19/14 - To the average observer, it would appear that California’s economy is steadily recovering. Unemployment rates are down, and new jobs are being introduced at a constant pace. Yet, in Tiffany Hsu’s L.A. Times article, it is revealed that the labor force is much smaller than it may seem.

Unemployment rates are measured based on the number of people receiving unemployment benefits from the government, not necessarily based on the number of people actually without work. Once someone has given up and stopped looking for work altogether, they are no longer considered “unemployed,” since they no longer qualify for unemployment benefits. So, “unemployment rates” tend to be quite misleading.

According to Hsu’s sources, the more accurate measurement of the labor force’s stability is the “labor force participation rate” – the number of people working or actively looking for work in proportion to the number of working-age individuals in the population. This, compared to the “unemployment rate” is more accurate in that it takes into account individuals who have given up on finding employment. The currently falling labor force participation rate has dramatic implications on the state of the economy.

A drop in the participation rate could mean that the jobs available are not the jobs people need. For many with college degrees and experience in well-paying fields, a plethora of jobs in the fast food industry means very little. Even for those who are willing to “lower their standards” and accept jobs for which they are “overqualified,” like a barista or salesperson, such positions have so much competition that the odds of gaining employment are slight. In the end, many individuals simply prefer to stay unemployed rather than risk losing such government benefits as Supplemental Security Income or Social Security Disability Insurance.

No matter what the reason, a decrease in the participation rate can’t be a good thing. With more seniors continuing to work well into their sixties and seventies, and new graduates looking for work straight out of school, only so many positions are available to recently laid-off workers. If higher-paying positions are unavailable in California, job-seekers will look elsewhere for employment, and that can have consequences.

While a decline in unemployment rates may seem like a positive sign, Hsu shows why this positive impact is limited. Statistics are misleading, but the bottom line is this: we need to get people back into the labor force. The state has been creating new jobs, but mainly in lower-paying fields. Workers, especially those with college degrees, want to work in jobs “worthy” of their skills. Thus, to bring the workers back in, the creation of better jobs must be a priority.

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Home Equity Used For Long-Term Investments

12/12/14 - A decade ago, before the Great Recession hit in full effect, it was common for people to take out a line of credit on the equity of their homes. This “quick cash” was spent non-productively, used to buy groceries or spent on vacations, rather than being used as an investment. Over time, people began to cease such “wasteful” ventures and have slowly been learning to use Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) in a smarter manner. In his article in the Los Angeles Times, Kenneth Harney describes how a recent increase in the use of such lines of credit is a good thing for the economy.

Although such HELOCs were once a way for people to pull money out of their homes for regular expenses, people have generally learned not to jeopardize the equity of their homes unless investing in something safe. For example, most of those who took money through a HELOC used it to make improvements on their homes, or to pay off higher-interest debts, such as those on credit cards. Both of these provide long-term benefits for the home-owner. Thus, it is shown that tapping into home equity is not always a bad thing. For those who make smart investments using the line of credit, home equity can be used and quickly earned back.

Until recently, most home-owners were wary of HELOCs, remembering the negative consequences that had arisen from the use of such funds for day-to-day expenses. Now, though, equity lines are up 21%, which, according to Harney's sources, could mean that people are starting to become more confident in the economy's stability. With less fear of economic collapse and an improvement in equity and interest rates, more home-owners consider a line of equity to be a “safe investment.”

Besides a stabilizing economy, HELOCs have become safer because of a crackdown by lenders. Lenders have become more careful as to who they lend to, making sure that credit scores and financial reserves are up to par. As Harney concludes, now is the time to look into home equity lines of credit. Such money, if used right, could have a dramatic economic impact, both personally and nationally.

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Low-Paying Jobs Filling the Southland

12/5/14 - According to recent data, job creation in the Southland has steadily been making its way back to higher levels. However, this data can be misleading. While new jobs are being created, thus allowing more unemployed workers back into the labor force, most of these jobs are in food service and retail sales. Such low-paying jobs, while better than nothing, don't provide the kind of increased domestic productivity that our economy so desperately needs. In his L.A. Times article, Chris Kirkham looks into the effects that this trend may have on the ongoing economic recovery.

Kirkham's sources point to two possibilities for this trend: 1) a decrease in the availability of jobs in higher-paying industries; or the more likely option 2) a lack of individuals with advanced education forces such industries to look elsewhere for employees. As Kirkham points out, many of the industries that once provided the opportunity to advance, manufacturing and construction in particular, have gone through changes that allow for a decrease in the amount of necessary employees. New technology, while helpful to society as a whole, removes the necessity of several positions in the industries, thus lessening the availability of such industrial jobs.

More than just the influx of new technology, though, is the fact that most higher-paying jobs require that those holding the jobs have some form of higher education. The bare minimum for these positions is usually a bachelor's degree, but some require further knowledge as gained in graduate school or beyond. The main problem, it seems, is that only 30% of workers in the Southland, compared to over 40% in the Bay Area, have a bachelor's degree, and that just isn't enough to fill the growing need for skilled employees. Without workers to fill these positions, many companies are forced to move elsewhere to find employees.

With a trend toward lower-paying jobs comes a marked decrease in median household income. Just as the Southland has more individuals lacking college degrees, nearly 18% of families in Southern California fall below the poverty line, a dramatic difference from the Bay Area's 11%. According to experts, the way to boost income levels in the Southland is to get more of the population into post-secondary schooling options.

A variety of high-paying jobs are indeed available in Southern California. From healthcare to construction, and everything in between, there are plenty of job opportunities for those with the necessary skills. All we need now is for people to gain those skills.

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G-20 Leaders Present Ideas For Economic Reform

11/28/14 - A group composed of the leaders of twenty of the world's largest economies, also called the G-20, held a meeting in Brisbane, Australia, recently, to discuss ways in which each country could contribute to a future restoration of the global economy. An article, by Don Lee of the L.A. Times, summarizes each of the issues addressed by the members of this group, and their plans for change around the world.

The leaders of the G-20 have long been criticized for being slow and ineffective; but, their newest proposition, including over 800 projects designed to add new jobs, may actually cause some positive stimulation to the currently sluggish economies found in most major countries. Sure, these projects may not be perfect, and they will require political support in their respective countries to be enacted, but some plan is better than nothing. The G-20's current plan aims to increase global output by 2% - over $2 trillion and millions of jobs – over the next five years, a hefty goal in and of itself.

While the main focus of this year's G-20 summit was the aforementioned 2% increase in global productivity, several other topics were broached that are usually viewed as less important to the economy, such as anti-corruption legislation, health issues, and climate change. This year's summit in particular made sure to address the fact that there is more to the economy than just jobs and productivity.

The leaders agreed to work on limiting greenhouse gases and other such pollution, while also making commitments to help contain the current Ebola outbreak, both of which have devastating effects on various economies around the world. Tensions at the G-20 summit were stretched thin, as leaders verbally butted heads based on their differing viewpoints regarding such “unrelated” economic principles.

Altogether, though, the G-20 summit seemed to be successful, to a point. No, most of the proposals will not have a dramatic effect on the global economy immediately, but such projects as those suggested at the meeting will definitely have a major effect on the economy of the future. Only these countries and their political leaders can really determine how far away that future lies.

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Credit Unions Providing Home Loans

11/21/14 - While home loans were once the responsibility of major financial institutions like banks, the post-recession mortgage loans have slowly but surely been making their way into the realm of the credit unions. Such credit unions have been amassing members, and currently own over 8% of all mortgages, three times as much as were owned before the Great Recession. Lew Sichelman's L.A. Times article goes into how these credit union loans can actually be preferable to those provided by “standard” institutions.

Credit unions, which are member-controlled, provide an alternative to common loan institutions that commonly increase the cost of a loan through miscellaneous fees. Anyone can join a credit union, and their non-profit standing keeps people interested in their loans, especially with our currently troubled housing market. During the recession, while many lenders pulled back and restricted the loans they were willing to grant, credit unions stayed open, making their loans available to those whom they deemed a worthwhile risk.

These lenders are different; they are run by the people. Every member has a say in how the union should be run, and this is a big part of why credit unions have been increasing in success. While mortgage loans were once a minimal area of focus for credit unions, new interest has led to mortgage loans encompassing over 40% of all loans provided by such institutions. The interest rates on credit union loans may be the same as those from other lenders, but a more personal touch of a credit union appears to be one of the factors drawing in new customers. Borrowers, of late, tend to have more faith in them, rather than in the banks and other lenders that once held the vast majority of mortgages and other such loans.

Although they are still relatively new to most, credit unions are gaining ground as they accomplish various goals. The common mortgage loan from a credit union is the normal, 30-year fixed rate, but many of these institutions have been applying innovative new techniques to make these loans more manageable. From ways of scheduling your mortgage so that you finish at a specific time, to loans that reset their interest rates to market level every five years, credit unions have developed ways to make their loans as consumer-friendly as possible. All in all, a standard banking institution may be great, but credit unions might be an option for many potential borrowers to seriously consider.

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FHA Set To Re-institute Quick-Flip Restrictions

11/14/14 - The Federal Housing Administration, a federal agency involved in providing mortgage loans to real estate investors, is set to reinforce restrictions that were lowered in 2010 in an effort to help the weak housing market. These restrictions set a minimum of 90 days for investors who wish to buy a home and “flip” it, by fixing it up and reselling it. The 90 day period between buying and selling is meant to prevent the selling of poorly-fixed houses for “hyper-inflated” prices. On the other hand, forcing flippers to hold onto a house for 90 days raises their costs, which they then have to incorporate into their selling price. An article by Kenneth Harney of the L.A. Times investigates the positive and negative aspects of the FHA's restrictive 90-day flipping period.

By waiving the 90-day flip period in 2010, the FHA enabled investors to buy, fix, and sell houses quickly and at lower cost, thus allowing first-time home-buyers to more easily find homes in a lower price range. These quick-flips benefited both investors and buyers, lowering prices across the board. Because of the decreased restriction, over 100,000 homes were revitalized and sold, thus improving the housing market.

This improvement is the reason for the FHA's reinstitution of the 90-day flip period. The waiver program has done what it was meant to do: it stimulated home sales, thus stabilizing the market and allowing newcomers the chance to become home-owners. The program has worked relatively well so far, but such a program always has its possible dangers.

In the past, before the 90-day period existed, investors would commonly resell seemingly well-maintained houses, which were nothing more than run-down homes with a fresh coat of paint. This would lead to buyers defaulting on their mortgages, and the FHA would be forced to cover the losses. By forcing investors to take at least 90 days in fixing the houses for resale, the sellers are encouraged to actually do a decent job on the construction.

Whether the restrictive 90-day period is a good or bad thing is a matter of opinion. Yes, forcing flippers to hold onto a property for longer than they need to would raise sale prices, but allowing quick-flippers to sell dilapidated properties at synthetically-high price would also hurt the housing market. The main point addressed in Harney's article is this: whether you like it or not, the FHA has made its decision. The waiver program will stop at the end of December, and the 90-day resale period will come back into practice at the beginning of 2015.

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Hands-Free Phone Systems Pose Distractions

11/7/14 - A hands-free phone system for use while driving became a required accessory under California state law, in the hope that a lack of physical distraction would reduce the general distraction of a driver and thus prevent accidents from occurring as frequently. While such hands-free systems do, for the most part, prevent drivers from needing to take their hands off of the steering wheel, a recent study performed by the American Automobile Association and the University of Utah provides compelling evidence that the complicated and error-prone systems may actually cause more distraction than they prevent. Jerry Hirsch, in his L.A. Times article, summarizes the results of this study and theorizes as to how such systems could be made more safe.

The study tested cognitive distraction, focusing on the mental strain of such systems as compared to simply the physical or visual distraction that any phone system could bring about. If one is thinking about too much, one tends to block out seemingly “irrelevant” stimuli, which can slow down one's reaction time and thus lead to a car accident. In much the same way, frustration at a voice-controlled system's mistakes or confusion related to the many features of such systems can lead to more distraction than even taking one's eyes off of the road. This, of course, does not imply that one should be using hand-held phone systems while driving either.

As the study concludes, no matter what kind of hands-free phone system one's car may have, the only real way to avoid distraction and be safe while driving is to avoid cell phone use entirely. To reduce distractions caused by hands-free phone systems, one should make sure that they fully understand how to use the system before trying to use it while actually driving. While Hirsch does quote sources that claim that the study shows little about the relationship between phone systems and distracted driving, most of his data shows that distracted driving is dangerous driving. Any distraction, no matter how slight, can have a drastic impact.

From errors in voice recognition to overly-complex programs, hands-free phone systems can be quite distracting. However, research shows that this doesn't have to be so. Manufacturers could, in future years, develop simpler, and thus safer, hands-free systems to prevent distractions while driving. Any form of distraction, whether physical, visual, or mental, reduces general safety, and due to this, it is always safer to just ignore one's phone while driving.

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