Over 51 Million People Flying Domestically this Holiday Season

Each year, especially leading up to the month of December, people across the country frantically scour the internet for the best airplane tickets to make it home in time for the holidays. Many people want to visit with family and the 21-day Christmas travel season is when millions of Americans choose to do so. Some people choose to drive or take a bus or train, but each year, the number of fliers continues to rise. According to Hugo Martin's L.A. Times article, this season's number of fliers increased by 3.5% from the same measurement last year.

Analysts expect that there will be over 51 million people traveling via plane throughout the upcoming holiday season. Over the last four years, airplane travel has been growing, especially in the month of December, and especially during the few days leading up to and following Christmas. Research shows that the increasing prevalence of the mode of transportation is likely due to improvements in the economy and competition between airlines, which make flights more affordable for the common consumer.

The law of supply and demand states that supply and demand tend to be inversely proportional, which means that as the supply of a good or service increases, the demand for it decreases. The same concept applies to the proportionality of demand/price or the inverse proportionality of supply/price. In other words, the more consumers demand a product, the more a company can charge for it. Because there are so many companies that offer the service of airplane transportation, the competition drives the price down. As more and more consumers choose to fly because of the lower prices, however, those same prices will likely be driven back up until the price reaches an equilibrium.

Economic analysts predict that this trend will lead to a total of more than $16 billion in profit split among the various domestic carriers, 5% more than last year. Additionally, over the past three years, airlines throughout North America have earned over half of the profit in the industry as a whole. Analysts expect that things might change quickly if the airlines aren't careful. Between rising costs, taxes, and governmental security laws, the various airlines may have to quickly adapt to successfully meet growing demands and keep their competitive edge.

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Number of Airline Passengers Expected to Increase by 3.5% from Last Year's Holiday Season

The holidays are a time when many people travel across the country to visit their family and friends and celebrate. Because of that, it can always be expected that airlines will be very busy in December, almost as busy as during the summer months when people are traveling on vacation. This year especially, analysts expect overcrowding at airports to be at an all-time high. In fact, according to Hugo Martin's L.A. Times article, the number of holiday fliers is expected to increase this year by 3.5%.

In 2015, over 70 million people took US-based flights in the month of December. This year, it is expected that over 45 million people will be flying during the holiday season that makes up the 21 days starting on December 16th. According to a trade group called Airlines for America, the increase in demand will likely force airlines to either increase the number of people per flight or the number of flights per day. If they don't, they will be missing out on potential business and will be upsetting loyal customers, which could hurt their bottom line in the long-run.

Just as the increase in demand is affected by the upcoming holidays, so too is a notable decrease in the number of fliers on certain days. As can be expected, because people are flying in order to spend the holidays with loved ones, they won't want to fly on the holidays themselves. Therefore, it is predicted that the days with the least demand will be Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, and their corresponding days. Similarly, in order to get to their destinations in time for the holidays with the least amount of missed time at work or school, it is expected that the largest number of people will choose to travel on December 22nd or December 23rd.

Airlines for America also released estimates regarding which airlines will likely be the most crowded on those days. The more populous the city, the more potential fliers it contains, so it makes sense that the airports with the largest number of passengers should be: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Chicago O’Hare International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport and Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. So, if you're planning on flying for the holidays and you don't want to get caught up in the chaos that will be the most crowded year in recorded history, you should avoid those popular dates and locations at all costs.

Low airfare and an improving economy are the reasons that economists choose to explain the spike in demand for air travel. While demand usually increases anyway, simply because the population continuously increases, this year's significant boost is cause for a stir among airlines. They are doing everything they can to meet the demand, which includes a 3.9% increase in the number of airplane seats sold per day during the holiday season. Around 99,000 more passengers per day will be  added, and to do that, airlines will have to make many technical and operational changes. Will they be successful at keeping up with the higher number of passengers? It's doubtful, but they might pull it off. 

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Mobile Shopping Increasingly Becoming an Integral Component of Black Friday

Black Friday has become a cultural phenomenon throughout the US. When it first started in 1952, it was just a day to start your holiday shopping, when stores discounted their products so that they could begin making a profit for the year and be "in the black." As time went on, the deals got better and better until it got to a point that people were waiting for hours in the middle of the night on Thanksgiving to get a chance at the best discounts once the stores opened. Over the past few years, however, stores have started to offer the same deals online as in the stores, which has reduced the number of Black Friday shoppers. Samantha Masunaga, in her L.A. Times article, discusses the shift to mobile shopping and some of the reasons why Black Friday continues, even with such decreased demand.

This year, it is projected that the e-commerce for the holiday season will grow to a valuation of over $117 billion. While Cyber Monday once represented the day when deal-hunters could get discounts on their online shopping, but now that so much of the Black Friday Shopping can be done online, many people consider Cyber Monday to be obsolete. It makes more sense to get their deals over the holiday than to find an hour or two in the middle of a busy workday to find the best deals. Retailers are seeing the difference: on Thanksgiving night, which has in itself begun to replace Black Friday, sales were 13.6% higher than last year, a total of nearly $1.2 billion.

Not only are people taking advantage of online deals rather than going into the stores, a surprising number of shoppers are doing so via mobile devices instead of computers. Nearly $550 million of the $1.2 billion total on Thanksgiving night came from mobile purchases. That's a 58.6% increase from last year's mobile sales. While mobile shopping is convenient, some people find it to be too much of a hassle and prefer using a computer, at least to complete their transactions. Not enough online retailers have improved their mobile layout, which has led to a projection that while 53% of e-commerce visits will happen on mobile devices, only 34% of sales will happen on apps.

Many customers find the checkout process to be too time-consuming or confusing on mobile apps for some businesses, and opt to go onto a computer or choose an easy-to-understand platform like Amazon to make their purchases. If online retailers want to stay competitive, they will have to improve their platforms, potentially by integrating easier payment systems like PayPal, Android Pay, or Apple Pay, rather than making customers try to input credit card information on the small screen of their smartphone. Target and Wal-Mart, among other companies, have noticed improvements in their mobile performance over the past few years. After fixing its online platforms and making it easier to checkout, Target even found that mobile sales over the weekend had increased by 200% from last year.

While mobile apps and online platforms are great for the tech-savvy consumer, many customers prefer the emotional connection to Black Friday that they get by physically going to the late-night sales. Some shoppers don't want to do online shopping because they would prefer to see the product up close and examine it before buying. Other people just enjoy the cultural experience of rushing through the store, hunting for deals. Whatever the reason, even if Black Friday becomes a mainly online phenomenon, it is very likely that there will still be in-store experiences available. Black Friday is a tradition for many shoppers, and especially since many people do their bargain-hunting online, crowding is less of an issue, many shoppers expect to be able to keep up the practice for many years to come.

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Online Shopping's Increased Popularity Causes Extended Shipping Delays

Just in December alone, it is expected that United Parcel Service will deliver a total of about 420 million packages in the United States while its competitor Federal Express will deliver about 228 million. The U.S. Parcel Service is also in the game, expected to ship about 545 million packages this month. All together, they will be shipping a huge amount, almost 8% more than they did at this time last year. According to Samantha Masunaga, in her L.A. Times article, this dramatic increase in the number of people and retailers needing to ship packages is due mainly to a recent increase in e-commerce.

This year, many retailers offered Black Friday deals on their websites, essentially giving their customers a choice. They could come into the store on Black Friday and shop, finding deals and purchasing items to take home with them immediately. Or, they could shop online, earning the same deals and reduced prices as in the store, and have the item shipped. Sensibly, many customers chose the second route, choosing to wait a little bit longer for their item rather than braving the hectic battle in the store on Black Friday. While this online integration by the retailers helped to keep Black Friday running more smoothly in stores, it came as an unexpected hit among shipping companies, whose predictions were far surpassed, which led to many delays on deliveries.

With the holidays approaching, shipping companies were getting even more overwhelmed with many more orders than in previous years. Because of that, they began telling customers that there would be no assurances that their package would arrive before Christmas unless they used the higher-cost options, like two-day or overnight shipping. Even those options were not perfect. UPS's on-time delivery rates for two-day and overnight delivery have varied throughout the month, ranging around 97%. Basically, when it comes down to it, even the more expensive options are not a guarantee, so consumers should plan ahead and order far in advance if they want to make sure their item arrives in a timely fashion.

Cyber Monday sales exceeded expectations, reaching $3.07 billion, which was 16% more than last year's sales. During Black Friday, about 103 million people got their deals online while 102 million preferred to do their shopping in brick-and-mortar establishments. Online purchases this year, especially during its final months, soared higher than ever expected, which is why shipping delays occurred. While shipping services were prepared for higher demand than in previous years, they could hardly know exactly how much the demand would increase, so the explosion of e-commerce's popularity caught them off-guard. Even for many online merchants, this year's demand was surprising. For several retailers, popular items ran out very quickly, and some even experienced crashes on their websites due to the increased traffic.

Most people in this day and age have a smartphone or some other way to get online while on the go. Because of this, online shopping may be easier and more appealing than having to go to stores and hope that they have the item you want in the correct size or color or style. It is simpler to just go to a website, type in exactly what it is you want, and order it. Over the holiday season, about 25% of e-commerce shopping was done via a mobile device. Our society's increasing dependence on new technology could be a reason why retailers have integrated more of that same technology into the shopping experience, making it easier and faster for potential customers to shop with them.

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Young Adults: Halloween's Growing Demographic

While Halloween was once considered to be mainly for children, statistics show that it has become a major consumer holiday, celebrated by plenty of Millenials and young adults. In fact, it is expected that this year, American will spend approximately $6.9 billion on Halloween and everything it entails. James Peltz, in his L.A. Times article, discusses how spending on such festivities has increased drastically over the years.

It is expected that over 157 million Americans will be participating in the festivities this year. Whether that includes purchasing candy to pass out to trick-or-treaters, or carving a pumpkin and wearing a costume, consumers will be spending a lot of money on their night of fun. The average price per consumer will be around $74, dramatically up from the $48 they spent a decade ago.

Spending, while high on Halloween, is still nowhere near the level during holidays like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Mother's Day, etc. However, for some businesses like costume shops and amusement parks, Halloween provides a significant portion of their yearly revenue. Most of the pumpkins grown in California are used for Halloween, thereby providing a reliable source of income for farmers in the San Joaquin Valley.

Some costume stores like Party City and Spirit Halloween open specific stores only for the six weeks preceding the holiday, thereby getting the most bang for their buck. Even though Party City has year-round stores, Halloween is their biggest season, bringing in about 25% of their annual sales. Even "Knott's Scary Farm" and Six Flags' "Fright Fest" have been known to encompass 15% of the total number of visitors to each amusement park in a given year. American consumers spend over $2 billion in candy alone per year. Generally, Halloween has become very profitable for an array of different kinds of businesses.

Even while consumers reuse decorations and costumes purchased in past years, they can't avoid spending on perishable items like food, candy, and fresh pumpkins, Research has even found that as involvement in social media has grown, so too have holiday-related costs. People share costume ideas via Facebook, Pinterest, and Twitter, alerting friends to sales at certain stores. Even more so, young adults, especially Millennials, tend to participate as a group, purchasing matching costumes and attending themed parties, all of which can be shared around the world by social media.

Peltz sees that nationwide spending on the festivities has doubled in the past 10 years. He believes that it is quite likely due to the technological era in which we live. As new devices and new movies/television shows enter our world, we have so much more to use in the celebration. Sure, kids are still participating in the holiday, but Peltz shows that Millennials make up the largest proportion of participants, and he believes that this trend will continue to hold true for many years to come.

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